Evaluating Unit Cost-Effectiveness in Kings of War: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Elo Ratings for the CoK 2025 Updates

Introduction

In Kings of War, understanding unit efficiency is crucial for good play on the table. Leveraging the latest Clash of Kings 2025 update, I conducted an extensive analysis to assess unit cost-effectiveness through Elo ratings. This study involved simulating 1.25 million combat scenarios, applying advanced statistical methods to derive meaningful insights. For background on how I do this, you can see here. Because CoK 2025 is so new, Elliot is still fixing errors in the Mantic Companion. That may change my analysis, so keep me updated if errors are spotted.

Methodology

Data Collection and Preparation

The analysis began with compiling unit data from the latest Clash of Kings (CoK 2025) update, encompassing attributes such as faction, unit name, type, size, and combat statistics. Units classified as ‘I’ (Individual) were excluded due to their numerous special rules and unique buffs, which extend beyond direct combat potential. This exclusion allows the analysis to focus purely on combat effectiveness of standard units. Missing values in critical fields were addressed by either imputing defaults or omitting incomplete entries, ensuring data integrity.

Elo Rating System Implementation

Each unit was assigned an initial Elo rating of 1500. The Elo rating system, traditionally used in competitive games, was adapted to evaluate unit performance based on simulated combat outcomes. The rating updates were governed by a dynamic K-factor, which decreased linearly from 100 to 1 over the course of the simulations, allowing the system to stabilize as more data was collected.

Combat Simulations

A custom-built combat simulator executed 1.25 million battles between randomly paired units. The selection process balanced between random pairings and matches between units with similar Elo ratings, promoting a comprehensive evaluation across the performance spectrum. Each simulation consisted of multiple rounds, with outcomes recorded to update the respective units’ Elo ratings.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Post-simulation, the cost-effectiveness of each unit was assessed using two primary metrics:

1. Elo per Point: This metric was calculated by dividing a unit’s final Elo rating by its point cost, providing a direct measure of performance relative to cost.
2. Elo Difference: A linear regression model predicted expected Elo ratings based on unit cost and size. In other words, different base sizes for units have different performance expectations, and this metric attempts to correct for that by comparing units versus their footprint size’s expected performance. The Elo Difference was determined by subtracting the predicted Elo from the actual Elo, highlighting units that outperformed or underperformed expectations.

These metrics were standardized and combined, with a weighting of 60% for Elo per Point and 40% for Elo Difference, to formulate a Composite Cost-Effectiveness score for each unit.

Results

Top Cost-Effective Units

The analysis identified the top cost-effective units across various types and sizes. I plan to get into more detail in future posts, but here’s a quick preview. Below is the updated summary table of the top cost-effective units by Type and Size:

Cavalry

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Forces of the Abyss 2024	Abyssal Horsemen	Cavalry	R
Forces of the Abyss 2024	Abyssal Horsemen	Cavalry	T
Dwarfs	Berserker Brock Riders	Cavalry	T
Free Dwarfs	Free Dwarf Berserker Brock Riders	Cavalry	T
The Order of the Green Lady	Order of Redemption	Cavalry	R

Chariot

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Riftforged Orcs	Fight Wagons	Chariot	H
Riftforged Orcs, Orcs	Fight Wagons	Chariot	L
Orcs, Riftforged Orcs	Fight Wagons	Chariot	R
Orcs, Riftforged Orcs	Fight Wagons	Chariot	T
Empire of Dust	Reanimated Behemoth	Chariot	M

Heavy Infantry

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Salamanders	Ancients	Heavy Infantry	R
Salamanders	Ancients	Heavy Infantry	T
Sylvan Kin, The Herd, Elves, Forces of Nature	Hunters of the Wild	Heavy Infantry	T
Orcs, Riftforged Orcs	Reborn Legionaries	Heavy Infantry	T
Salamanders	Salamander Primes	Heavy Infantry	H

Infantry

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Forces of the Abyss 2024	Abyssal Guard	Infantry	T
Abyssal Dwarfs, Ratkin Slaves	Immortal Guard	Infantry	T
Empire of Dust, Undead	Mummies	Infantry	T
Basileans	Paladin Foot Guard	Infantry	T
Empire of Dust, Undead	Revenants	Infantry	T

Large Cavalry

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Kingdoms of Men	Beast Cavalry	Large Cavalry	R
Nightstalkers	Fiends	Large Cavalry	R
Varangur, Northern Alliance	Frostfang Cavalry	Large Cavalry	H
Varangur, Northern Alliance	Frostfang Cavalry	Large Cavalry	R
League of Rhordia	Honour Guard	Large Cavalry	R

Large Infantry

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Forces of Nature, Free Dwarfs, Dwarfs, The Order of the Green Lady, The Herd	Earth Elementals	Large Infantry	R
Empire of Dust	Enslaved Guardians	Large Infantry	R
Salamanders	Tyrants	Large Infantry	R
Forces of Nature	Water Elementals	Large Infantry	R
Undead	Zombie Trolls	Large Infantry	H

Monster

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Undead	Goreblight	Monster	M
Salamanders	Greater Fire Elemental	Monster	M
The Order of the Green Lady, Trident Realm of Neritica, Forces of Nature	Greater Water Elemental	Monster	M
Twilight Kin	Impaler Soulbane	Monster	M
Varangur, Northern Alliance	Snow Troll Prime	Monster	M

Monstrous Infantry

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Twilight Kin	Impalers	Monstrous Infantry	R
Abyssal Dwarfs	Lesser Obsidian Golems	Monstrous Infantry	H
Abyssal Dwarfs	Lesser Obsidian Golems	Monstrous Infantry	R
Forces of the Abyss 2024	Molochs	Monstrous Infantry	H
Forces of the Abyss 2024	Molochs	Monstrous Infantry	R

Swarm

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Empire of Dust	Desert Swarm	Swarm	R
Forces of the Abyss 2024	Imps	Swarm	R
Free Dwarfs, Dwarfs	Mastiff Hunting Pack	Swarm	R
Abyssal Dwarfs	Mutated Mastiff Hunting Pack	Swarm	R
Riftforged Orcs, Orcs	Orclings	Swarm	R

Titan

Faction	Name	Type	Size
The Herd, Free Dwarfs, The Order of the Green Lady, Dwarfs, Forces of Nature	Greater Earth Elemental	Titan	Ti
Abyssal Dwarfs	Greater Obsidian Golem	Titan	Ti
Abyssal Dwarfs	Infernok	Titan	Ti
Nightstalkers	Portal of Despair	Titan	Ti
Empire of Dust, Undead	Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm	Titan	Ti

War Engine

Faction	Name	Type	Size
Elves	Dragon Breath	War Engine	WE
Abyssal Dwarfs	Dragon Fire-Team	War Engine	WE
Dwarfs	Flame Belcher	War Engine	WE
Northern Alliance	Ice Kin Bolt Thrower	War Engine	WE
Dwarfs	Ironbelcher Organ Gun	War Engine	WE

Visualization

The violin plot below visualizes the distribution of cost-effectiveness scores across different unit types. It provides insights into the variability and central tendencies within each category, aiding in comparative analysis:

This visualization highlights which unit types generally provide higher value for their point cost, and which have greater variability in performance. As you can see, there’s a wide range of effectiveness in war engines, chariots, and monstrous infantry, while cavalry, monsters, and titans, in particular, are nestled within a very narrow bunch.

Conclusion

This comprehensive evaluation offers valuable insights into unit performance and cost-effectiveness in Kings of War, helping players make smarter strategic decisions on the table. The use of Elo ratings combined with cost analysis provides a strong framework for evaluating unit efficiency, and it can easily adapt to future updates and expansions.

I’m planning to do some deep dives into specific armies soon, but I’d love to hear what you’d find most useful. Are there particular unit types or factions you’d like me to break down in more detail? Let me know your thoughts! Your input can shape where I focus next—whether that’s more army reviews or detailed unit comparisons. Let’s keep this conversation going and make sure the content keeps hitting the mark for your needs.