Decoding Unit Efficiency in Kings of War: A Dual-Method Analysis

Which Kings of War units perform well for their points, and which outperform expectations once cost and size are considered? I compared units across 1.25 million combat simulations using Elo per Point and a regression model. The rankings are a useful starting point for list building, but they leave out some special rules and synergies, so they do not capture everything that matters on the table.

Methodology:

• Elo per Point Analysis:
  • Elo per Point divides a unit’s Elo rating by its points cost. Higher values mean a higher combat rating relative to the points spent.
  • The tables below show the five highest-rated units in each size category by Elo per Point. The ranking compares combat rating with points cost; it does not show how easily a unit gets into position or contributes to scenario play.
  • It’s important to note that Elo ratings do not account for the tactical dynamics of getting a unit into combat. For example, comparing a large-based legion with other unit types may not always be a direct apples-to-apples comparison.
• Regression Model Analysis:
  • The second method employs a regression model, analyzing the ‘Elo Difference’—the disparity between a unit’s actual Elo rating and the rating predicted by the model based on cost and size.
  • Elo Difference shows whether a unit’s rating is above or below what the regression model predicts from its cost and size. This helps identify units that rate higher or lower than expected among similarly priced units of that size.

Elo per Point ranks units by combat rating per point. Elo Difference compares each unit with the rating predicted from cost and size. Some units appear in both sets, but the methods answer different questions.

(Some units show up in multiple lists and have slightly different values. That stems from the randomness of the 1.25 million simulations; don’t read too much into those variances).

Method 1: Elo per Point

Troops

Regiments

Hordes

Legions

War Engines

Monsters

Titans

Method 2: Regression Modeling

While understanding the cost-effectiveness of units in Kings of War is crucial, analyzing their performance relative to expectations offers a deeper strategic insight. In this part, I focus on a regression analysis that evaluates units based on their Elo_Difference – a metric indicating whether a unit performs better or worse than expected for its cost and size.

Methodology:

The regression model was developed using the Elo ratings, cost (Pts), and unit size as variables. This model helps predict the expected Elo rating for a unit based on its cost and size. The Elo_Difference is then calculated as the actual Elo rating minus the predicted Elo rating from the model. A positive Elo_Difference suggests that a unit is performing better than expected (potentially overpowered), while a negative value indicates underperformance (potentially underpowered). Here are the five most overpowered units in each of the respective categories based on this regression model:

Troops

• Paladin Monster Slayers, The Order of the Brothermark, 1485.5
• Immortal Guard, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1458.1
• Ancients, Salamanders, 1326.9
• Immortal Guard, Ratkin Slaves, 1318.1
• Ironguard, Dwarfs, 1306.5

Regiments

• Immortal Guard, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1297.0
• Immortal Guard, Ratkin Slaves, 1216.0
• Lesser Obsidian Golems, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1030.3
• Impalers, Twilight Kin, 1028.0
• Paladin Monster Slayers, The Order of the Brothermark, 995.4

Hordes

• Skeleton Warriors, Empire of Dust, 1313.8
• Lower Abyssals, Forces of the Abyss, 1193.6
• Skeleton Warriors, Undead, 1083.8
• Dogs of War, League of Rhordia, 1045.0
• Blacksouls, Ratkin Slaves, 1016.9

Legions

• Draugr, Varangur, 674.9
• Militia Mob, Kingdoms of Men, 649.8
• Villein Penitents, The Order of the Brothermark, 591.1
• Zombies, Undead, 570.6
• Scarecrows, Nightstalkers, 540.9

War Engines

• Flame Belcher, Dwarfs, 1354.4
• Ironbelcher Organ Gun, Dwarfs, 1255.4
• Volley Gun, League of Rhordia, 1218.2
• Bolt Thrower, Sylvan Kin, 1141.2
• Volley Gun, Halflings, 1062.8

Monsters

• Reanimated Behemoth, Empire of Dust, 1263.9
• Greater Water Elemental, Forces of Nature, 1075.7
• Greater Water Elemental, The Order of the Green Lady, 1060.7
• Greater Water Elemental, Trident Realm of Neritica, 1004.7
• Greater Fire Elemental, Forces of Nature, 959.1

Titans

• Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm, Undead, 838.4
• Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm, Empire of Dust, 810.4
• Goblin Slasher, Goblins, 677.6
• Greater Earth Elemental, The Herd, 672.1
• Greater Earth Elemental, Forces of Nature, 646.1

Again, remember that this list considers only a subset of the special rules, so units with more special rules and synergies will underperform. Also, base size significantly impacts ability to get the unit in combat. That said, hopefully these two ways of looking at unit effectiveness will give you a starting point on what units to use in your list building.