Winter isn’t just coming—it’s efficiently priced.
In previous editions, the Northern Alliance was the poster child for “Herohammer” and “Monster Mash.” You threw Hrimm, a Lord on Chimera, and a brick of Snow Trolls on the table and dared your opponent to chew through the stats. But as we transition into 4th Edition, the math has shifted. The days of relying on a few titanic pivots are over.
I finally finished updating my simulation engine for 4th edition, and the simulations for the new edition reveal a stark pivot: The “Elite” choices are mathematically inefficient, while the core units have become the deadliest ROI in the list. If you are still building your list around Hrimm, you are fighting against the probability curve.
Let’s look at the numbers (with the caveat that this is the first army review of 4th edition, and we’re almost certainly going to update these as Elliot fixes errors in the Companion).
The Data Snapshot
The global stats for the Northern Alliance paint a picture of an army that is slightly more expensive than the global average, but remarkably consistent in speed and defense.
| Metric | Northern Alliance | Global Average | Analysis |
| Avg Points | 162.5 | 156.7 | Skewed high by inefficient Monsters. |
| Avg Defense | 4.3 | 4.3 | Standard durability. |
| Avg Speed | 6.3 | 6.3 | Not a fast alpha-strike army, but not slow dwarves either. |
| Top Keyword | Crushing Strength (28) | – | You pay a premium for damage output. |
Most Cost-Effective Units
This table represents the highest Combined Cost-Effectiveness scores in the faction. These numbers are derived from my proprietary regression model, blending raw Elo per Point with Elo Difference (Performance vs Expected).
| Unit Name, Size | Sp | Me | Sh | De | Ne | Shots to 6 Nerve | Avg Hits | Points | Elo | Cost Effectiveness | % Kills vs Def 4 | % Kills vs Def 5 | Traits |
| Human Tribesmen, Troop | 5 | 3+ | – | 5+ | 12+ | 18 | 9.0 | 110 | 1411 | 1.14 | 28.2% | 2.4% | Barbarian |
| Human Tribesmen, Regiment | 5 | 3+ | – | 5+ | 16+ | 30 | 10.3 | 140 | 1726 | 1.05 | 41.6% | 4.8% | Barbarian |
| Human Tribesmen (2H Weapons), Regiment | 5 | 3+ | – | 4+ | 16+ | 20 | 10.4 | 140 | 1726 | 1.05 | 63.8% | 12.4% | Barbarian |
| Dwarf Clan Warriors (2H Weapons), Troop | 4 | 4+ | – | 4+ | 12+ | 12 | 6.7 | 90 | 1177 | 1.01 | 15.6% | 0.6% | |
| Dwarf Clan Warriors (2H Weapons), Regiment | 4 | 4+ | – | 4+ | 16+ | 20 | 7.7 | 120 | 1511 | 0.96 | 23.6% | 1.5% |
Understanding the Table
The data is screaming one thing: Barbarian Infantry. The top three slots are occupied by Human Tribesmen. With a Cost-Effectiveness of 1.14, the Tribesmen Troop is a statistical outlier. It delivers far more violence than its 110-point price tag suggests. Conversely, notice what is missing? The Frostfang Cavalry. The Lords. The Monsters. They are statistically absent from the top tier.
With all the hand-wringing about 4th Edition’s Battalion rules locking away elite choices, Northern Alliance players are sitting on a statistical goldmine. Everyone is complaining they can’t spam their favorite toys, but look at the table again. Your ‘best’ units aren’t the restricted Specialists or Support choices; they are run-of-the-mill Core. While other generals are fighting the list-building restrictions to squeeze in one more Dragon, you are filling your Core slots with the most efficient killers in the index. The restrictions don’t hurt you because efficiency is your tax.
Unit Deep Dives
Human Tribesmen
The ROI King
The Stat: Me 3+, 25 Attacks (Horde) / 12 Attacks (Regiment) / 10 Attacks (Troop), Wild Charge (1).
The Application: These are your trading pieces. In 4th Edition, the Barbarian trait combined with Wild Charge (1) gives them a 11″ threat range on the charge. They hit on 3s, which is a rarity for “cheap” infantry. A Troop throwing 10 attacks on 3s with CS(1) is enough to waver expensive cavalry or delete opposing chaff instantly. You don’t take these to survive; you take them to trade up.
The Caveat: They die to a stiff breeze. Def 5+ is decent, but with Nerve 12 on the Troop, they will vanish if you let them get shot. Treat them as ammunition, not assets.
Dwarf Clan Warriors (2H Weapons)
The Budget Unlock
The Stat: Me 4+, CS(1), Headstrong.
The Application: At 90 points for a Troop, this is one of the most efficient ways to flood the board. They aren’t flashy, but CS(1) means they can actually hurt things, unlike standard shield-wall chaff. Their job is to stand in front of your Tribesmen, absorb the enemy’s charge, and die. Headstrong ensures they don’t get wavered by incidental shooting, keeping your battle line fluid.
The Caveat: Speed 4. They will slow you down. If you run an Alpha list, leave these at home. They belong in the Grind.
The Trap: Frostfang Cavalry & Hrimm
The Efficiency Black Hole
The Stat: Hrimm (320 pts), Frostfang Regiment (265 pts).
The Warning: This will hurt to hear, but the math is brutal.
- Frostfang Cavalry (Regiment) sit at a Combined Cost-Effectiveness of -0.48.
- Hrimm sits at -1.34.
Why? Diminishing returns. You are paying a massive premium for durability and footprint that simply doesn’t translate into efficient killing power in the current simulation models. Hrimm is a 320-point target that can be tarpitted by 90 points of Zombies that swallow his crushing strength. Frostfang Cavalry, hitting on 4s (even with Strider), simply bounce too often against De 5/6 units to justify taking up nearly 20% of your points limit.
Tactical Adjustment: If you own the models, run them as regiments or not at all. The troop size is a trap for new players who think they are getting a mini-hammer. You aren’t. You’re getting an expensive paperweight.
Strategic Archetypes
The data suggests two viable builds for the 4th Edition Northern Alliance. Forget the Monster Mash and look at the Gini coefficients of power distribution.
1. The Barbarian Avalanche (Low Gini)
This list maximizes the 1.14 Cost-Effectiveness of the Tribesmen. You run wide—really wide.
- Core: 4-5 Troops of Tribesmen, 3 Regiments of Tribesmen (2H).
- Support: Pack Hunters for stealthy shooting support.
- Strategy: You flood the board. You have more drops, more attacks, and more board control than your opponent. You trade 110-point troops for their 200-point regiments. By Turn 4, you have pieces left; they don’t.
2. The Frozen Wall (Medium Gini)
A grind-focused list built around the durability of Ice Naiads.
- Core: Ice Naiad Regiments (De 4+, Regen 5+, Ensnare).
- Hammer: Snow Trolls (Regiments) or Tribesmen (2H) behind the wall.
- Strategy: The Naiads are the Anvil. They stick. Ensnare and Regen make them mathematically annoying to shift. Once the enemy commits to the grind, you counter-charge with the Tribesmen or Trolls. This requires precise positioning, as you lack the speed to recover from a bad deployment.
The Verdict
The Northern Alliance in 4th Edition is a faction in transition. It has shed its identity as a “low model count, high toughness” army and emerged as a “high efficiency, high violence” trading faction.
Strengths:
- Wild Charge is everywhere. You threaten further than your stat line suggests.
- Human Tribesmen are currently under-priced for their output. Abuse this until the FAQs hit.
- Trading Efficiency: You can win the attrition war against elite armies like Elves.
Weaknesses:
- Trap Units: The coolest models (Frostfangs, Chimera Lords) are the least efficient.
- Shooting: You lack high-volume long-range projection. You must close the gap.
Final Advice: Put the Giants back on the shelf. Paint up 40 more Tribesmen. Trust the algorithm.
