After a suggestion on the Kings of War forums, I used tournament data to track faction usage over time. This analysis builds on my earlier post and uses kowmasters.com, which has UK tournament data going back to 2015.
Data Source and Goals
The kowmasters.com dataset covers tournaments from 2015 onward and records which factions players brought. I used it to track faction popularity over time while accounting for differences in event and player counts from month to month.
Methodology
To make sense of the data, I first loaded it into Python for analysis. The dataset included:
- Event date
- Player name
- Faction used
From there, I decided on two key steps for the analysis:
- Faction Popularity as a Percentage: I calculated the percentage of players using each faction for every period (monthly, then quarterly), which normalizes for the varying numbers of players and events across time.
- Rolling Average: To smooth out short-term spikes or drops, I applied a 3-quarter rolling average. This way, we could focus on broader trends without getting lost in noise from one-off events or outliers.
Visualization
Once the numbers were crunched, I wanted a visual way to see how faction popularity has shifted over the years. I turned to Flourish, a powerful visualization tool, to create an animated bar chart. This allows us to dynamically track how factions rise and fall in popularity over time.
For example, factions like Elves were very dominant in the early years but saw a decline in more recent times, while factions like Abyssal Dwarfs have maintained a steady presence.
The Impact of Faction Refreshes: Model Availability and Rules Revisions
Another way to examine faction popularity trends, as suggested on the Kings of War forums, is by considering how model availability and style influence what factions see play on the tabletop. With that in mind, I explored whether a faction’s popularity sees an uptick after a refresh, be it a rules update or a new model range.
Using data from UK tournaments, I tracked faction usage rates the year before, during, and after a refresh to observe any shifts in popularity. The table below shows the results:
| Faction | Usage Before Refresh | Average During and After Refresh | Refresh Year | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trident Realm of Neritica | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2024 | +9.1% |
| Northern Alliance | 4 | 6.4 | 2023 | +60.0% |
| Twilight Kin | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2023 | +8.7% |
| Varangur | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2023 | -13.8% |
| Empire of Dust | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2022 | -11.1% |
| Ogres | 6.8 | 7.1 | 2022 | +4.4% |
| Halflings | – | 2.9 | 2021 | – |
| Riftforged Orcs | – | 1.9 | 2021 | – |
| Salamanders | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2021 | +26.1% |
| Abyssal Dwarfs | 5.3 | 7.9 | 2020 | +49.1% |
| Goblins | 3.6 | 6.4 | 2020 | +77.8% |
| Nightstalkers | 4.1 | 7.4 | 2020 | +80.5% |
| Ratkin | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2020 | +15.2% |
This data indicates that faction refreshes often lead to a rise in popularity over the following year or two, supporting the idea that new rules and models reinvigorate factions. However, this trend isn’t guaranteed across all factions. The time needed for painting and army-building also means that there’s often a lag before we see these changes reflected in tournament play.
Conclusion
The data shows that faction usage changes after some faction refreshes, while other factions remain steady or decline. Rule changes, new models, and player preferences may all affect these patterns. The trends are worth tracking, but they do not by themselves show why players choose a faction.
The kowmasters.com dataset is available for anyone who wants to explore UK tournament statistics.
