The Meta Lies Again: Five Storylines from the 2025 US Masters

1. Adam Ballard Makes History with Trashstalkers
   Let’s start with the obvious: massive congratulations to Adam Ballard, now the first-ever two-time US Master. He took the title with a Nightstalker list that leaned into the faction’s identity hard–a flexible mix of stealth, speed, and grind that proved just oppressive enough without ever being flashy. It wasn’t your typical alpha-strike build or brute-force hammer list. This was a pure Trashstalker army, and Adam ran it with clinical precision. In a year where everyone expected grindy infantry lines and Dwarven armor walls, he proved that smart maneuver, flexible counters, and tight play can still win it all.

Bonus stat: the top 10 included nine different factions. Think about that for a second. If you’re still out here saying Kings of War is solved or that only a few armies can compete, this Masters just laughed in your face. (For more on why tournament distributions like this are actually expected, not anomalies, check out this breakdown on randomness and meta balance).¹

2. Dwarf Surge? More Like Dwarf Stall
   Let’s clear something up: there were 11 Dwarf lists, not 64. But it sure felt like they were everywhere. The buzz before the event was all about tanks, grind, and artillery–and Dwarves were front and center. But the results? Not quite as dominant. The highest-placing Dwarf general finished just outside the top 10, and most hovered around the middle tables. Solid results, sure. But no real breakout. The dwarf surge turned into more of a holding pattern–stable, frustrating to play against, but ultimately beatable, compiling a 19-4-3 record (.569). 
3. Forces of the Abyss Deliver, But Don’t Define the Top Tables
   One of the biggest pre-event storylines (see my preview here) was the rise of the Forces of the Abyss. And for good reason: these lists brought a toolbox of options: punchy hammers, lots of regen, and the kind of unit diversity that rewards tight play. Overall, they performed well. Two Abyss lists finished in the top four, confirming the hype. But the performance wasn’t across the board. While some generals racked up wins, others stumbled early and never recovered. Like many toolbox factions, the Abyss rewards reps and punishes mistakes. The upside is clearly there, but only if you’re piloting it with discipline. On the whole the Forces of the Abyss went 15-14-1 (.517). 
4. Halflings Shine, The Herd Stampedes
   The best-performing faction by win rate among factions with more than one player (sorry Varangur and Basileans)? Halflings. Quietly, consistently, effectively. All three Halfling players finished with winning records (two went 4-2, one went 3-2-1), and they posted a faction-high 64% win rate. Not bad for a faction that wasn’t exactly on everyone’s radar. Elsewhere in the “wait, what?” category: Keith Conroy’s Herd army posted a 3-2-1 record, including a notable win over Jeff Schiltgen. But for those who know Kings, that’s not shocking. Keith is a former US Master and always plays at a high level–he could show up with a half-painted army of scarecrows and still go 3-2-1.
5. Hits and Misses From the Hype List
   In the “Armies to Watch” post, I highlighted five players I thought had the tools to shake things up: Travis Timm, Tyler Schultz, Michael Sigler, Jeff Schiltgen, and Tom Annis. Results were mixed, but overall? Not bad. Timm (#7) and Schiltgen (#8) both went 4-2. Annis landed a solid 4-2 with Dwarfs (#17). Sigler’s Rats (#30) and Schultz’s Brothermark (#38) didn’t quite break through in a stacked field, but weren’t disasters either.

So did I actually pick better than random?

Turns out, yes. Statistically speaking, the average finish for a random pick in a 64-player field is 32.5. My five picks averaged 16.6. A quick z-test puts that at p = 0.023, and a 200,000-run permutation test confirms it: p = 0.0230. That’s statistically significant. TL;DR–I wasn’t just guessing (though, in fairness, Travis Timm, Jeff Schiltgen, and three of anyone else is probably a safe way to pick well from a results standpoint). 

Want to dive deeper? Download the full results spreadsheet here:

It has faction breakdowns, individual records, and round-by-round data for those who want to nerd out. For the official results page, go here. If you want to watch some of the games on the Countercharge stream, find the Saturday games here and Sunday games here.

Meta Takeaway
The 2025 US Masters was a showcase of faction diversity and player skill. Sure, grindy counterpunch lists were common, but they didn’t crowd out the rest of the field. The game is in a good place competitively. No one faction ran the table. Trashstalkers won, Halflings overperformed, and Goblins outmaneuvered expectations. If you’re chasing results in 2025, the meta isn’t solved–but the players who adapt fastest will be the ones collecting trophies.

1. I’ll note that my ranking and the official rankings differ. The official rankings use battle scores calculated via scenario points, as well as soft scores, while my rankings here are straight elo battle calculations. ↩︎