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Data and Dice > Blog > CoK-2024 > Decoding Unit Efficiency in Kings of War: A Dual-Method AnalysisÂ
CoK-2024

Decoding Unit Efficiency in Kings of War: A Dual-Method AnalysisÂ

By Trevor
Last updated: 2024-06-13 5:51 pm
By Trevor
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In the tactical and strategic realm of Kings of War, discerning the true efficiency of units can provide a significant edge in gameplay. This analysis ventures deep into the data, aiming to reveal which units offer the most value for their points cost. Drawing from an extensive dataset of 1.25 million combat simulations, I’ve employed two distinct but complementary approaches to evaluate unit performance.

Contents
Methodology:Method 1: Elo per PointTroopsRegimentsHordesLegionsWar EnginesMonstersTitansMethod 2: Regression ModelingMethodology:TroopsRegimentsHordesLegionsWar EnginesMonstersTitans

Methodology:

  • Elo per Point Analysis:
    • Our first metric, ‘Elo per Point’, is a direct measure that divides a unit’s Elo rating by its points cost. This simple yet effective ratio offers an immediate sense of how much ‘bang for your buck’ each unit provides on the battlefield.
    • In this analysis, we pinpoint the top five most cost-effective units across various size categories. These standout units demonstrate superior efficiency, delivering greater tactical value per point.
    • It’s important to note that Elo ratings do not account for the tactical dynamics of getting a unit into combat. For example, comparing a large-based legion with other unit types may not always be a direct apples-to-apples comparison.
  • Regression Model Analysis:
    • The second method employs a regression model, analyzing the ‘Elo Difference’—the disparity between a unit’s actual Elo rating and the rating predicted by the model based on cost and size.
    • This approach helps identify units that are performing above or below the expected level, considering their cost and size. It’s a more nuanced method that reveals not just cost-effectiveness but also the relative strength or weakness of units within their respective categories.

By applying these two methods, we gain insights from slightly different perspectives, with some overlap. Together, they provide a comprehensive understanding of unit performance in Kings of War, enabling players to make informed decisions in army building and gameplay strategy.

(Some units show up in multiple lists and have slightly different values. That stems from the randomness of the 1.25 million simulations; don’t read too much into those variances).

Method 1: Elo per Point

Troops

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
Mincer MobGoblins1606.2
Minotaur ChariotsThe Herd1704.8
AncientsSalamanders1204.4
Immortal GuardAbyssal Dwarfs1053.9
Paladin Monster SlayersThe Order of the Brothermark1003.6

Regiments

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
Immortal GuardAbyssal Dwarfs1609.3
Immortal GuardRatkin Slaves1608.8
Mincer MobGoblins2008.4
Abyssal HalfbreedsAbyssal Dwarfs1908.4
MummiesEmpire of Dust1808.1

Hordes

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
Lower AbyssalsForces of the Abyss18010.7
BlacksoulsRatkin Slaves19010.0
Skeleton WarriorsEmpire of Dust14010.0
BlacksoulsAbyssal Dwarfs1909.9
RevenantsUndead2059.9

Legions

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
Villein PenitentsThe Order of the Brothermark1907.5
DraugrVarangur1807.5
Fight WagonsOrcs2857.3
SharpsticksGoblins2057.3
Blood WormsNightstalkers2907.2

War Engines

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
Flame BelcherDwarfs906.9
Ironbelcher Organ GunDwarfs905.8
Volley GunLeague of Rhordia804.1
Bolt ThrowerSylvan Kin803.1
Volley GunHalflings852.9

Monsters

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
Reanimated BehemothEmpire of Dust1909.1
Greater Water ElementalForces of Nature1807.7
Greater Water ElementalThe Order of the Green Lady1807.6
Greater Water ElementalTrident Realm of Neritica1807.3
Tree HerderElves2607.2

Titans

UnitArmyCost (Pts)Elo per Point
HellfaneAbyssal Dwarfs2658.6
Greater Earth ElementalThe Herd2308.0
Greater Earth ElementalForces of Nature2307.9
Greater Obsidian GolemAbyssal Dwarfs2357.8
Greater Earth ElementalThe Order of the Green Lady2307.7

Method 2: Regression Modeling

While understanding the cost-effectiveness of units in Kings of War is crucial, analyzing their performance relative to expectations offers a deeper strategic insight. In this part, I focus on a regression analysis that evaluates units based on their Elo_Difference – a metric indicating whether a unit performs better or worse than expected for its cost and size.

Methodology:

The regression model was developed using the Elo ratings, cost (Pts), and unit size as variables. This model helps predict the expected Elo rating for a unit based on its cost and size. The Elo_Difference is then calculated as the actual Elo rating minus the predicted Elo rating from the model. A positive Elo_Difference suggests that a unit is performing better than expected (potentially overpowered), while a negative value indicates underperformance (potentially underpowered). Here are the five most overpowered units in each of the respective categories based on this regression model:

Troops

  • Paladin Monster Slayers, The Order of the Brothermark, 1485.5
  • Immortal Guard, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1458.1
  • Ancients, Salamanders, 1326.9
  • Immortal Guard, Ratkin Slaves, 1318.1
  • Ironguard, Dwarfs, 1306.5

Regiments

  • Immortal Guard, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1297.0
  • Immortal Guard, Ratkin Slaves, 1216.0
  • Lesser Obsidian Golems, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1030.3
  • Impalers, Twilight Kin, 1028.0
  • Paladin Monster Slayers, The Order of the Brothermark, 995.4

Hordes

  • Skeleton Warriors, Empire of Dust, 1313.8
  • Lower Abyssals, Forces of the Abyss, 1193.6
  • Skeleton Warriors, Undead, 1083.8
  • Dogs of War, League of Rhordia, 1045.0
  • Blacksouls, Ratkin Slaves, 1016.9

Legions

  • Draugr, Varangur, 674.9
  • Militia Mob, Kingdoms of Men, 649.8
  • Villein Penitents, The Order of the Brothermark, 591.1
  • Zombies, Undead, 570.6
  • Scarecrows, Nightstalkers, 540.9

War Engines

  • Flame Belcher, Dwarfs, 1354.4
  • Ironbelcher Organ Gun, Dwarfs, 1255.4
  • Volley Gun, League of Rhordia, 1218.2
  • Bolt Thrower, Sylvan Kin, 1141.2
  • Volley Gun, Halflings, 1062.8

Monsters

  • Reanimated Behemoth, Empire of Dust, 1263.9
  • Greater Water Elemental, Forces of Nature, 1075.7
  • Greater Water Elemental, The Order of the Green Lady, 1060.7
  • Greater Water Elemental, Trident Realm of Neritica, 1004.7
  • Greater Fire Elemental, Forces of Nature, 959.1

Titans

  • Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm, Undead, 838.4
  • Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm, Empire of Dust, 810.4
  • Goblin Slasher, Goblins, 677.6
  • Greater Earth Elemental, The Herd, 672.1
  • Greater Earth Elemental, Forces of Nature, 646.1

Again, remember that this list considers only a subset of the special rules, so units with more special rules and synergies will underperform. Also, base size significantly impacts ability to get the unit in combat. That said, hopefully these two ways of looking at unit effectiveness will give you a starting point on what units to use in your list building.

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